Brand Obama versus Brand Clinton

Yes, we all claim to hate the "packaging" of presidential candidates as though they're products on the shelf a giant electorate grocery store. We all think we evaluate our preferred candidates based on a thorough consideration of their platforms, and even the hint that a candidate is being groomed or redirected to appeal to consumers--I mean voters--sends Americans howling. We expect our candidates to represent us, but heaven forbid they convene a focus group to see what is on our minds!

But here's the fact of the matter--we elect presidents with no more care and concern than we select toothpaste or peanuts. I'll bet the average American will spend more time watching the Super Bowl, shopping for their next automobile, or seeing movies in 2008 than they will examining the candidates' platforms.

Pollsters know that we vote for candidates we find likable and trustworthy, but it doesn't really take a research specialist to see this. Last election, we reelected a president who had gotten us into a war over unjust causes and erroneous intelligence because we didn't want the smart, dedicated, stiff guy. Bush was the guy many of us wanted to sit down and have a beer with, and no one wanted to listen to Kerry speak for more than 10 minutes out of fear they'd be put to sleep. That isn't much of a way to select the leader of the strongest nation on earth, is it?

So, if for a moment we can set aside our knee-jerk tendency to claim that candidates shouldn't be "branded" and that Americans base their voting decisions on policy and not brand attributes, I'd like to explore Brand Obama and Brand Clinton.

Brand Obama is a singular brand, while Brand Clinton is a brand family. Brand Obama is just Barack, but one cannot evaluate Hillary's brand without considering the positive and negative associations transferred from Bill.

The Clinton Brand family is a complex brand. Bill was leader during a time of positive economic growth, and he had charismatic appeal that worked for the left and middle (but drove the right crazy). He embarrassed himself at the end of his presidency with a sex scandal, but earned new trust by being a respectable elder statesman after departing office. Interestingly, he was elected despite being considered a little untrustworthy--you'll recall his nickname was "Slick Willy"--but Brand Bill was able to overcome the negative associations because voters found him so likable and genuine.

Chances are, the Junior Senator from New York would probably not be a front-runner for the office of President were it not for her last name. Brand Clinton carried her to victory when she ran for Senate in New York--a state in which she had never previously lived--and it gave her the boost she needed to be considered a serious candidate for the White House.

But while one cannot ignore Brand Clinton's impact on Hillary, she will win or lose the election as her own brand. And this is where Brand Hillary has some problems. There are doubts as to her trustworthiness; in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey, just 34% gave Hillary good scores for being "honest and straightforward" while 39% rated her poorly.

This is a HUGE problem for her and the Democratic party. Lacking Bill's "man of the people" appeal, his easy charm, and his folksiness, Hillary is going to struggle to overcome the trust issue. And like any brand, she cannot get out of it by offering more product features; in other words, having better policy or being smarter simply isn't enough to overcome trust and likability issues. (If it were, we'd be voting to re-elect President Kerry this year.)

Brand Obama, on the other hand, looks pretty good. He's likable and trustworthy. The same poll that knocked Hillary on the trust issue showed Barack's decided advantage: 51% said Obama's "honest and straightforward," 17% did not.

Obama's got a strong brand, and Hillary is going to find it damn tough to overcome his momentum. You can complain all you want about the way I'm reducing the candidates to fluff over substance, but unless Hillary can find ways to convince voters she's not just smart and capable but also likable and trustworthy, it's all over.

Of course, Brand Clinton should never be ruled out. Party loyalists (a/k/a Superdelegates) continue to lean toward her (or, more accurately, to the Clinton brand), so she may yet capture the nomination. But versus McCain, the likely Republican candidate, she's going to lose out on those same important brand attributes of likability and trust.

I have no idea how, but Hillary's got to get likable and/or trustworthy fast, or she'll need to step aside for a stronger Democratic brand... er, I mean candidate.